:Product: 19960217RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1996 Feb 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 048 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 17 FEB 1996
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 16/2100Z
TO 17/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. THE DISK REMAINS
SPOTLESS.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
VERY LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 16/2100Z TO 17/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED EARLY, THEN QUIET THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 18 FEB-20 FEB
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           17 FEB  071
PREDICTED   18 FEB-20 FEB  072/072/072
90 DAY MEAN        17 FEB  073
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 16 FEB  009/008
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 17 FEB  010/009
PREDICTED AFR/AP 18 FEB-20 FEB  010/010-005/007-005/005
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 18 FEB-20 FEB
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/10/10
MINOR STORM           10/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/15/15
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/01/01