:Product: 19960224RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1996 Feb 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 055 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 24 FEB 1996
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 23/2100Z
TO 24/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY CONTINUED VERY LOW. A 13 DEGREE
SEGMENT OF A FILAMENT LOCATED NEAR N20E08 FADED BETWEEN
24/0000-0300Z. A NEW REGION EMERGED AT A MODERATE PACE NEAR
N09W26 AND WAS NUMBERED AS REGION 7948.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE
AT A VERY LOW LEVEL. IF NEW REGION 7948 CONTINUES TO EMERGE
AT ITS CURRENT PACE, IT COULD PRODUCE AN ISOLATED LOW-LEVEL
C-CLASS FLARE IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 23/2100Z TO 24/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE
PERIOD BETWEEN 24/0300-0600Z SAW ACTIVE CONDITIONS AT MID
LATITUDES AND MINOR STORMING AT HIGH LATITUDES.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD
SHOULD BE PREDOMINANTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR 25-26 FEB.
ISOLATED ACTIVE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THAT TIME.
MOSTLY QUIET LEVELS ARE FORECAST FOR 27 FEB.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 25 FEB-27 FEB
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           24 FEB  076
PREDICTED   25 FEB-27 FEB  077/078/079
90 DAY MEAN        24 FEB  073
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 23 FEB  012/013
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 24 FEB  015/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 25 FEB-27 FEB  010/010-010/010-008/008
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 25 FEB-27 FEB
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/10/10
MINOR STORM           15/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01