:Product: 19960225RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1996 Feb 25 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 056 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 25 FEB 1996
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 24/2100Z
TO 25/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY CONTINUED VERY LOW. THE EMERGENCE
OF REGION 7948 (N09W40) SLOWED.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE
AT A VERY LOW LEVEL. THERE IS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF AN
ISOLATED C-CLASS FLARE FROM REGION 7948.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 24/2100Z TO 25/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS PREDOMINANTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
ACTIVE CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED AT HIGH AND MID LATITUDES
BETWEEN 25/0600-0900Z. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES WERE IN THE
LOW TO MODERATE RANGE.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD
SHOULD BE PREDOMINANTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT
THREE DAYS. ISOLATED ACTIVE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON
26 FEB.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 26 FEB-28 FEB
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           25 FEB  073
PREDICTED   26 FEB-28 FEB  074/075/075
90 DAY MEAN        25 FEB  073
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 24 FEB  015/017
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 25 FEB  010/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 26 FEB-28 FEB  010/010-008/008-008/008
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 26 FEB-28 FEB
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01