:Product: 19960229RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1996 Feb 29 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 060 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 29 FEB 1996
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 28/2100Z
TO 29/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. THERE WERE TWO
SPOTTED REGIONS ON THE VISIBLE DISK EARLY IN THE DAY, BUT AT
LAST REPORT BOTH REGIONS WERE SPOTLESS. A 40-DEGREE-LONG
FILAMENT REMAINS QUIESCENT NEAR S45E30.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
VERY LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 28/2100Z TO 29/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN AT MOSTLY QUIET LEVELS
FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES AT
GEOSYNCHRONOUS ALTITUDES APPROACHED EVENT THRESHOLD BUT
HAVE SINCE DECLINED.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY QUIET WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
UNSETTLED PERIODS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 01 MAR-03 MAR
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           29 FEB  072
PREDICTED   01 MAR-03 MAR  070/070/070
90 DAY MEAN        29 FEB  073
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 28 FEB  008/007
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 29 FEB  008/007
PREDICTED AFR/AP 01 MAR-03 MAR  010/005-005/005-005/005
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 01 MAR-03 MAR
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/05/01
MINOR STORM           05/05/01
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/05/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01