:Product: 19960311RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1996 Mar 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 071 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 11 MAR 1996
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 10/2100Z
TO 11/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. NEWLY ASSIGNED
REGION NUMBER 7952 (S03E37) SHOWED STEADY GROWTH AND PRODUCED
FREQUENT B-CLASS SUBFLARES DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. THE LARGEST
OF THESE WAS A B9/SF AT 1620Z. THE GROUP IS CURRENTLY A SMALL
BXO TYPE GROUP WITH A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST MAGNETIC INVER-
SION LINE.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
VERY LOW TO LOW. THERE IS A FAIR CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED C-CLASS
FLARE.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 10/2100Z TO 11/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN AT QUIET TO MAJOR STORM LEVELS.
ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM LEVELS PREDOMINATED FROM 10/2100Z THROUGH
11/1500Z WITH A PERIOD OF MAJOR STORM LEVELS FROM 0300-0600Z.
CONDITIONS WERE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FROM 11/1500Z TO THE END
OF THE PERIOD.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED WITH SOME ISOLATED ACTIVE PERIODS OVER
THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS DUE TO PERSISTENCE. CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
MOSTLY UNSETTLED THEREAFTER.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 12 MAR-14 MAR
CLASS M    05/05/05
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           11 MAR  072
PREDICTED   12 MAR-14 MAR  072/072/073
90 DAY MEAN        11 MAR  072
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 10 MAR  008/009
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 11 MAR  024/020
PREDICTED AFR/AP 12 MAR-14 MAR  015/010-010/010-010/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 12 MAR-14 MAR
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/15/25
MINOR STORM           15/10/20
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/10
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/15/25
MINOR STORM           15/10/20
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/10