:Product: 19960312RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1996 Mar 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 072 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 12 MAR 1996
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 11/2100Z
TO 12/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. REGION 7952 (S03E22)
PRODUCED ONLY ONE FLARE TODAY: A B2/SF AT 1925Z. THE REGION
GREW IN WHITE LIGHT TO A 17 SPOT DAO GROUP WITH AN ELONGATED
CONFIGURATION. ACTIVITY IN THE REGION HAS BEEN REDUCED COMPARED
TO YESTERDAY AS ITS MAGNETIC FIELD STRUCTURES HAVE BECOME LESS
SHEARED.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
VERY LOW TO LOW. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A POSSIBILITY FOR AN
ISOLATED C-CLASS FLARE FROM REGION 7952.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 11/2100Z TO 12/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM QUIET TO ACTIVE LEVELS OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS PREVAILED MOST OF THE
DAY BUT OCCASIONAL BRIEF ACTIVE PERIODS OCCURRED AT MID-
LATITUDES FROM 0300-0600Z AND AT HIGH LATITUDES FROM 1200-
1800Z. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX OBSERVED AT
GOES-8 EXCEEDED 1000 PFU TODAY AT 1500Z AND CONTINUED TO
BE ABOVE THRESHOLD AT FORECAST ISSUE TIME.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. AN
INCREASE TO UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE LEVELS IS EXPECTED LATE ON DAY
TWO AND CONTINUING THROUGH DAY THREE IN RESPONSE TO EFFECTS
FROM A CORONAL HOLE.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 13 MAR-15 MAR
CLASS M    05/05/05
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           12 MAR  073
PREDICTED   13 MAR-15 MAR  073/073/074
90 DAY MEAN        12 MAR  072
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 11 MAR  024/026
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 12 MAR  012/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 13 MAR-15 MAR  010/010-010/010-015/015
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 13 MAR-15 MAR
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/25/25
MINOR STORM           10/20/20
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/10/10
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/25/25
MINOR STORM           10/20/20
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/10/10