:Product: 19960313RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1996 Mar 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 073 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 13 MAR 1996
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 12/2100Z
TO 13/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. REGION 7952 (S04E09)
SHOWED SIGNS OF DECLINE AND WAS VERY STABLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
VERY LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 12/2100Z TO 13/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM QUIET TO MINOR STORM LEVELS
WITH A PERIOD OF MAJOR TO SEVERE STORM LEVELS AT HIGH LATITUDE.
QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS PREVAILED THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY,
BUT A PERIOD OF ENHANCED ACTIVITY OCCURRED FROM 0900-1500Z.
THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUXES OBSERVED AT GOES 8
EXCEEDED 1000 PFU DURING PART OF THE DAY.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED WITH OCCASIONAL ACTIVE PERIODS OVER
THE NEXT TWO DAYS DUE TO  EFFECTS FROM PERSISTENCE ON DAY ONE
AND EFFECTS FROM A CORONAL HOLE ON DAY TWO. PREDOMINANTLY UN-
SETTLED LEVELS ARE EXPECTED ON THE THIRD DAY.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 14 MAR-16 MAR
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           13 MAR  071
PREDICTED   14 MAR-16 MAR  072/072/073
90 DAY MEAN        13 MAR  072
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 12 MAR  011/012
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 13 MAR  016/018
PREDICTED AFR/AP 14 MAR-16 MAR  015/012-015/015-010/015
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 14 MAR-16 MAR
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/25/15
MINOR STORM           20/20/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/10/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/25/15
MINOR STORM           20/20/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    10/10/05