:Product: 19960314RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1996 Mar 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 074 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 14 MAR 1996
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 13/2100Z
TO 14/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. REGION 7952 (S04W04)
IS THE ONLY SPOTTED REGION ON THE DISK AND HAS CONTINUED TO
DECAY OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. THE NORTHERN POLAR CROWN FILAMENT
DISAPPEARED SOMETIME BETWEEN 13/2119Z AND 14/1443Z. THE YOHKOH
SXT IMAGE OF 14/1212Z SHOWS ENHANCED X-RAY EMISSION ALONG THE
POSITION OF THE FILAMENT, WHICH SUGGESTS THAT THE FILAMENT
ERUPTED. THE FILAMENT WAS ABOUT 22 DEGREES LONG AND WAS LOCATED
ALONG AN EAST-WEST DIRECTION FROM N44W15 TO N44W36.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
VERY LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 13/2100Z TO 14/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE GREATER
THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUXES MEASURED AT GOES-8 HAVE BEEN
ABOVE 1000 PFU FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED WITH SOME BRIEF ACTIVE PERIODS FOR
THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. THE ENHANCED ACTIVITY LEVELS ARE
POSSIBLE DUE TO EFFECTS FROM A FAVORABLY POSITIONED CORONAL
HOLE. ACTIVE CONDITIONS ARE PREDICTED ON THE THIRD DAY AS A
LIKELY RESPONSE TO TODAY'S FILAMENT ERUPTION.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 15 MAR-17 MAR
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           14 MAR  071
PREDICTED   15 MAR-17 MAR  072/073/073
90 DAY MEAN        14 MAR  072
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 13 MAR  016/017
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 14 MAR  010/009
PREDICTED AFR/AP 15 MAR-17 MAR  015/015-010/015-020/015
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 15 MAR-17 MAR
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/10/35
MINOR STORM           20/05/25
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    10/01/10
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/10/35
MINOR STORM           20/05/25
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    10/01/10