:Product: 19960315RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1996 Mar 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 075 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 15 MAR 1996
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 14/2100Z
TO 15/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. THERE WAS NO ACTIVITY
OF NOTE IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. REGION 7952 (S07W14) CONTINUES
ITS SLOW DECAY AND REMAINS THE ONLY SPOTTED REGION ON THE
VISIBLE DISK.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
VERY LOW. REGION 7952 IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DECAY SLOWLY
AND QUIETLY. IT HAS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A C-CLASS FLARE.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 14/2100Z TO 15/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS FOR
THE PAST 24 HOURS. UNSETTLED LEVELS WERE NOTED DURING VERY
ISOLATED PERIODS AT MIDDLE LATITUDES. THE GT 2 MEV ENERGETIC
ELECTRON FLUX HAS BEEN AT HIGH LEVELS FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT 18 HOURS THEN
UNSETTLED WITH ISOLATED PERIODS OF ACTIVE LEVELS FOR THE REST
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO THE DISAPPEARING FILAMENT
IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPORTED ON 14 MARCH.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 16 MAR-18 MAR
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           15 MAR  070
PREDICTED   16 MAR-18 MAR  070/070/072
90 DAY MEAN        15 MAR  072
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 14 MAR  009/009
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 15 MAR  007/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 16 MAR-18 MAR  010/010-015/020-010/008
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 16 MAR-18 MAR
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/20/15
MINOR STORM           10/15/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/05/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/25/20
MINOR STORM           10/20/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05