:Product: 19960316RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1996 Mar 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 076 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 16 MAR 1996
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 15/2100Z
TO 16/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. THERE WAS NO FLARE
ACTIVITY. REGION 7952 (S04W32), THE ONLY SPOTTED REGION ON THE
VISIBLE DISK, CONTINUED ITS SLOW DECAY.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
VERY LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 15/2100Z TO 16/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS
FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE GT 2 MEV ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUX
RANGED FROM NORMAL TO HIGH LEVELS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS, THEN
UNSETTLED WITH ISOLATED PERIODS OF ACTIVE LEVELS AFTER THAT
IN RESPONSE TO A DISAPPEARING FILAMENT REPORTED ON 14 MARCH.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 17 MAR-19 MAR
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           16 MAR  071
PREDICTED   17 MAR-19 MAR  072/072/072
90 DAY MEAN        16 MAR  073
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 15 MAR  006/007
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 16 MAR  011/009
PREDICTED AFR/AP 17 MAR-19 MAR  015/020-010/008-005/005
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 17 MAR-19 MAR
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/15/05
MINOR STORM           15/10/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/20/05
MINOR STORM           20/15/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/01