:Product: 19960317RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1996 Mar 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 077 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 17 MAR 1996
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 16/2100Z
TO 17/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. THERE WAS NO ACTIVITY
OF NOTE. REGION 7952 (S04W48) REMAINS THE ONLY SPOTTED REGION ON
THE VISIBLE DISK AND HAS DECAYED INTO A UNIPOLAR HRX SPOT GROUP.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
VERY LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 16/2100Z TO 17/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN AT QUIET TO ACTIVE LEVELS FOR
THE PAST 24 HOURS. ACTIVITY CAN BE LINKED TO THE DISAPPEARING
FILAMENT REPORTED ON 14 MARCH. THE GT 2 MEV ENERGETIC ELECTRON
FLUX CONTINUED TO RANGE FROM MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO ACTIVE FOR THE NEXT 18 HOURS, THEN
QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 18 MAR-20 MAR
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           17 MAR  071
PREDICTED   18 MAR-20 MAR  072/072/074
90 DAY MEAN        17 MAR  073
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 16 MAR  009/008
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 17 MAR  014/013
PREDICTED AFR/AP 18 MAR-20 MAR  010/008-005/005-005/005
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 18 MAR-20 MAR
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/05/05
MINOR STORM           10/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/10/05
MINOR STORM           15/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/01/01