:Product: 19960321RSGA.txt :Issued: 1996 Mar 21 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SDF NUMBER 081 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 21 MAR 1996 IA. ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 20/2100Z TO 21/2100Z: SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. NEW REGION 7953 (N07E24), THE ONLY ACTIVE REGION ON THE VISIBLE DISK, WAS NUMBERED TODAY. THIS REGION IS A QUICKLY DEVELOPING BXO SPOT GROUP WITH POTENTIAL FOR CONTINUED GROWTH. IB. SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST: SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY LOW, WITH AN APPROXIMATE 20 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF A C-CLASS EVENT FROM REGION 7953. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 20/2100Z TO 21/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN AT MOSTLY UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE LEVELS FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS, WITH A SINGLE MINOR STORM INTERVAL RECORDED AT MIDDLE LATITUDES DURING THE PERIOD 21/0000-0300Z, AND A SINGLE MAJOR STORM INTERVAL RECORDED AT HIGH LATITUDES DURING THE PERIOD 21/1500-1800Z. THE GT 2 MEV ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUX RANGED FROM MODERATE TO HIGH, HAVING JUST DROPPED BACK DOWN TO MODERATE LEVELS AT THE END OF THE REPORTING PERIOD. IIB. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT MOSTLY UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE LEVELS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THEN DROPPING TO QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR DAYS TWO AND THREE. III. EVENT PROBABILITIES 22 MAR-24 MAR CLASS M 01/01/01 CLASS X 01/01/01 PROTON 01/01/01 PCAF GREEN IV. PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX OBSERVED 21 MAR 070 PREDICTED 22 MAR-24 MAR 072/072/072 90 DAY MEAN 21 MAR 073 V. GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES OBSERVED AFR/AP 20 MAR 019/017 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 21 MAR 022/020 PREDICTED AFR/AP 22 MAR-24 MAR 015/015-015/010-010/010 VI. GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 22 MAR-24 MAR A. MIDDLE LATITUDES ACTIVE 25/20/20 MINOR STORM 10/10/10 MAJOR-SEVERE STORM 05/05/05 B. HIGH LATITUDES ACTIVE 25/20/20 MINOR STORM 15/10/10 MAJOR-SEVERE STORM 05/05/05