:Product: 19960322RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1996 Mar 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 082 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 22 MAR 1996
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 21/2100Z
TO 22/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW.  REGION 7953 (N08E10)
HAS GROWN CONSIDERABLY SINCE YESTERDAY AND IS CURRENTLY A
COMPLEX 13 SPOT 'DSI' BETA-GAMMA GROUP. SEVEN B-CLASS X-RAY
EVENTS WERE REGISTERED DURING THE REPORTING PERIOD, THE
MOST SIGNIFICANT BEING A B4 EVENT AT 22/1914Z, WHICH WAS
OPTICALLY CORRELATED AS A SUB-FLARE WITH AN AREA OF 12 MILS.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
VERY LOW, ALTHOUGH REGION 7953 HAS AN INCREASED 30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF GENERATING A C-CLASS EVENT, AND 5 PERCENT CHANCE OF
GENERATING AN M-CLASS EVENT.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 21/2100Z TO 22/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN AT QUIET TO MINOR STORM
LEVELS FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS AT ALL LATITUDES.  ENERGETIC
ELECTRONS HAVE RANGED FROM MODERATE TO THEIR CURRENT HIGH
LEVELS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO ACTIVE, WITH THE CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
PERIODS OF MINOR STORMING FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR DAYS TWO AND
THREE.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 23 MAR-25 MAR
CLASS M    05/05/05
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           22 MAR  074
PREDICTED   23 MAR-25 MAR  072/072/070
90 DAY MEAN        22 MAR  073
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 21 MAR  029/022
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 22 MAR  018/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 23 MAR-25 MAR  015/010-010/010-010/008
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 23 MAR-25 MAR
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/20/20
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/20/20
MINOR STORM           15/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05