:Product: 19960323RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1996 Mar 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 083 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 23 MAR 1996
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 22/2100Z
TO 23/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY BECAME LOW BY VIRTUE OF A C1/SF
FLARE FROM REGION 7953 (N07W01). THIS REGION CONTINUED TO GROW
AT A SLOW PACE AND WEAK MIXED POLARITIES REMAINED. PRIOR TO THE
C1 FLARE, REGION 7953 EXHIBITED A SLOW DECLINE IN PLAGE
BRIGHTNESS AND BACKGROUND X-RAY AND RADIO EMISSIONS.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
PREDOMINANTLY VERY LOW. REGION 7953 IS CAPABLE OF ANOTHER
SMALL C-CLASS EVENT BUT THE GENERAL TREND SHOULD BE ONE
OF SLOW DECAY AND LESSENED BURST ACTIVITY.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 22/2100Z TO 23/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. RECENT SOLAR
WIND DATA INDICATE A MODERATELY FAST AND LOW DENSITY STREAM
IN THE VICINITY OF THE EARTH. THIS HOLE-LIKE STREAM HAS NO
OBVIOUS SOLAR SOURCE IN X-RAYS OR EUV. ENERGETIC ELECTRON
FLUXES AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WERE MODERATE TO HIGH.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
FORECAST TO BE PREDOMINANTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT
THREE DAYS. ISOLATED ACTIVE CONDITIONS, MAINLY AT HIGH
LATITUDES, ARE POSSIBLE ON 24 MAR. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES
SHOULD REMAIN ENHANCED FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 24 MAR-26 MAR
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           23 MAR  072
PREDICTED   24 MAR-26 MAR  071/070/070
90 DAY MEAN        23 MAR  073
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 22 MAR  015/014
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 23 MAR  008/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 24 MAR-26 MAR  010/010-008/008-008/008
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 24 MAR-26 MAR
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/20/15
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/20/15
MINOR STORM           15/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05