:Product: 19960324RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1996 Mar 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 084 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 24 MAR 1996
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 23/2100Z
TO 24/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY RETURNED TO A VERY LOW LEVEL.
REGION 7953 (N07W16) STABILIZED AND PRODUCED ONLY MINOR
INTENSITY FLUCTUATIONS. MINOR MIXED POLARITIES REMAINED IN THIS
REGION.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN AT
A VERY LOW LEVEL. THERE IS ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A C-CLASS
FLARE FROM REGION 7953.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 23/2100Z TO 24/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS PREDOMINANTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
ACTIVE CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED AT SEVERAL SITES BETWEEN
24/0000-0300Z. SOME HIGH LATITUDE SITES EXPERIENCED MINOR TO
MAJOR STORMING BETWEEN 24/1200-1800Z. SOLAR WIND VELOCITIES
ON 24 MAR INCREASED ABOUT 100 KM/S OVER 23 MAR VALUES TO
NEAR 580 KM/S. THIS MAXIMUM VELOCITY OCCURRED NEAR 24/1942Z
WHEN BZ WAS ALSO OBSERVED TO ABRUPTLY TURN SOUTHWARD TO
MODERATE LEVELS. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS
ORBIT WERE MOSTLY MODERATE.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
FORECAST TO BE PREDOMINANTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR 25 MAR.
ACTIVE PERIODS ARE LIKELY EARLY ON 25 MAR. SOME HIGH LATITUDE
SITES COULD EXPERIENCE MINOR TO MAJOR STORMING THAT DAY IN
RESPONSE TO THE HIGH SPEED STREAM IN THE EARTH'S VICINITY.
THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD LESSEN ON 26 MAR AND MOSTLY QUIET
LEVELS ARE PREDICTED FOR 27 MAR.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 25 MAR-27 MAR
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           24 MAR  071
PREDICTED   25 MAR-27 MAR  070/070/070
90 DAY MEAN        24 MAR  073
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 23 MAR  007/007
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 24 MAR  010/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 25 MAR-27 MAR  012/012-008/008-005/005
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 25 MAR-27 MAR
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/15/10
MINOR STORM           05/10/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/05/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/20/10
MINOR STORM           15/10/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/01