:Product: 19960325RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1996 Mar 25 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 085 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 25 MAR 1996
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 24/2100Z
TO 25/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED VERY LOW. REGION 7953
(N07W29) BEGAN A SLOW DECAY, BECAME BIPOLAR, AND PRODUCED
FEW INTENSITY ENHANCEMENTS.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN
VERY LOW FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 24/2100Z TO 25/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS GENERALLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
ACTIVE CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED EARLY IN THE PERIOD. SOME
ISOLATED HIGH LATITUDE SITES EXPERIENCED MINOR TO SEVERE
STORMING BETWEEN 25/1200-1800Z. SOLAR WIND DATA CONTINUE TO
INDICATE A CORONAL HOLE STREAM NEAR EARTH. THE MOST LIKELY
SOURCE OF THIS STREAM IS THE SOUTHERN POLAR HOLE. ENERGETIC
ELECTRON FLUXES AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WERE MODERATE TO
HIGH.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD
SHOULD RANGE FROM QUIET TO SLIGHTLY ACTIVE ON 26 MAR. MINOR
TO MAJOR STORMING REMAINS A POSSIBILITY FOR HIGH LATITUDE
SITES. SOLAR WIND DATA FROM LAST SOLAR ROTATION INDICATE A
LESSENING OF STREAM VELOCITY ON 27 MAR. THE FIELD SHOULD BE
QUIET TO UNSETTLED THAT DAY AND MOSTLY QUIET ON 28 MAR AS
THE CURRENT DISTURBANCE FINALLY SUBSIDES.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 26 MAR-28 MAR
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           25 MAR  072
PREDICTED   26 MAR-28 MAR  071/070/070
90 DAY MEAN        25 MAR  073
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 24 MAR  015/013
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 25 MAR  014/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 26 MAR-28 MAR  010/010-005/008-005/005
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 26 MAR-28 MAR
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/15/10
MINOR STORM           10/10/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/20/10
MINOR STORM           15/10/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/01