:Product: 19960326RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1996 Mar 26 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 086 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 26 MAR 1996
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 25/2100Z
TO 26/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED VERY LOW. A SMALL C-CLASS
GROUP EMERGED NEAR N02W24 AND WAS NUMBERED AS NEW REGION 7954.
REGION 7953 (N07W41) CONTINUED ITS SLOW DECLINE.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE
AT VERY LOW LEVELS FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 25/2100Z TO 26/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS PREDOMINANTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
ISOLATED ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM LEVELS OCCURRED AT HIGH
LATITUDES AT VARIOUS TIMES DURING THE PERIOD. SOLAR WIND
DATA ARE SUSPECT AS THE SPACECRAFT APPROACHES THE
MAGNETOSPHERE. HOWEVER, INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE SOLAR WIND
VELOCITY DROPPED ABOUT 100 KM/S DURING THE PERIOD.
ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WERE
MODERATE TO HIGH.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD
SHOULD BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. SOME
ISOLATED ACTIVE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON 27 MAR.
ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES SHOULD RETURN TO BACKGROUND
VALUES ON 28-29 MAR.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 27 MAR-29 MAR
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           26 MAR  072
PREDICTED   27 MAR-29 MAR  072/072/071
90 DAY MEAN        26 MAR  072
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 25 MAR  014/013
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 26 MAR  009/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 27 MAR-29 MAR  005/008-005/005-005/005
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 27 MAR-29 MAR
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/10/10
MINOR STORM           10/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/01/01