:Product: 19960412RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1996 Apr 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 103 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 12 APR 1996
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 11/2100Z
TO 12/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. THERE WAS NO FLARE
ACTIVITY. NEW REGION 7956 (N08E35) WAS NUMBERED TODAY.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
VERY LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 11/2100Z TO 12/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN AT UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE
LEVELS FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS AT MIDDLE LATITUDES. HIGH
LATITUDES EXPERIENCED QUIET TO SEVERE STORMING. CAUSE OF
THE CURRENT ACTIVITY IS UNKNOWN.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE FOR THE NEXT 18 HOURS. THE
FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY UNSETTLED AFTER THAT.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 13 APR-15 APR
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           12 APR  068
PREDICTED   13 APR-15 APR  070/070/070
90 DAY MEAN        12 APR  071
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 11 APR  010/008
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 12 APR  021/020
PREDICTED AFR/AP 13 APR-15 APR  015/013-010/010-015/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 13 APR-15 APR
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/15/25
MINOR STORM           10/10/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/20/30
MINOR STORM           15/15/20
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05