:Product: 19960413RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1996 Apr 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 104 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 13 APR 1996
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 12/2100Z
TO 13/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. THERE WAS NO FLARE
ACTIVITY. REGION 7956 (N06E21) REMAINED QUIET AND FAIRLY STABLE.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
VERY LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 12/2100Z TO 13/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN AT MOSTLY QUIET LEVELS
FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS. HIGH LATITUDES SAW SHORT PERIODS OF
UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE LEVELS LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE GREATER THAN
2 MEV ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUX RANGED FROM MODERATE TO HIGH
LEVELS, REACHING EVENT LEVEL CRITERIA AT 13/1500Z.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS,
THEN MOSTLY UNSETTLED AFTER THAT.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 14 APR-16 APR
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           13 APR  069
PREDICTED   14 APR-16 APR  070/070/068
90 DAY MEAN        13 APR  071
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 12 APR  018/024
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 13 APR  006/007
PREDICTED AFR/AP 14 APR-16 APR  010/010-010/010-015/015
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 14 APR-16 APR
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/25
MINOR STORM           10/10/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/20/25
MINOR STORM           15/15/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05