:Product: 19960414RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1996 Apr 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 105 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 14 APR 1996
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 13/2100Z
TO 14/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. THERE WAS NO FLARE
ACTIVITY. REGION 7956 (N06E08) HAS DECAYED TO A MERE PLAGE
REGION.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
VERY LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 13/2100Z TO 14/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN AT QUIET TO MINOR STORM LEVELS
FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ENERGETIC ELECTRON
FLUX HAS BEEN BELOW EVENT THRESHOLD SINCE 14/0045Z.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS, THEN
UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE THROUGHOUT DAY THREE.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 15 APR-17 APR
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           14 APR  069
PREDICTED   15 APR-17 APR  070/068/068
90 DAY MEAN        14 APR  071
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 13 APR  009/009
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 14 APR  016/020
PREDICTED AFR/AP 15 APR-17 APR  010/015-015/015-020/020
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 15 APR-17 APR
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/25/35
MINOR STORM           10/15/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/25/35
MINOR STORM           15/15/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05