:Product: 19960415RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1996 Apr 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 106 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 15 APR 1996
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 14/2100Z
TO 15/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. REGION 7956 (N06W06)
REMAINED QUIET, STABLE AND SPOTLESS. FAINT PORES WERE NOTED
HERE EARLIER TODAY, BUT THEY QUICKLY FADED. THE REMAINDER OF THE
VISIBLE DISK WAS SPOTLESS.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
VERY LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 14/2100Z TO 15/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN AT QUIET TO MINOR STORM
LEVELS FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS. HIGH LATITUDES EXPERIENCED A
SHORT PERIOD OF MAJOR STORMING AROUND 15/0900Z. THE GREATER
THAN 2 MEV ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUX RANGED FROM MODERATE TO
HIGH OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO MOSTLY UNSETTLED AFTER THAT.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 16 APR-18 APR
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           15 APR  068
PREDICTED   16 APR-18 APR  068/068/070
90 DAY MEAN        15 APR  071
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 14 APR  028/027
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 15 APR  016/024
PREDICTED AFR/AP 16 APR-18 APR  015/020-020/020-015/015
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 16 APR-18 APR
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/35/35
MINOR STORM           15/20/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/35/35
MINOR STORM           15/20/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05