:Product: 19960416RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1996 Apr 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 107 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 16 APR 1996
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 15/2100Z
TO 16/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY CONTINUED VERY LOW. REGION 7956
(N07W21) RE-EMERGED WITH TWO SMALL SPOTS, BUT PRODUCED NO
ERUPTIVE ACTIVITY. THE LIMBS WERE QUIET.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
VERY LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 15/2100Z TO 16/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE GREATER
THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX WAS HIGH.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED AT MIDDLE LATITUDES. HIGH LATITUDES
MAY EXPERIENCE ACTIVE CONDITIONS EARLY, GIVING WAY TO
UNSETTLED LEVELS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 17 APR-19 APR
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           16 APR  068
PREDICTED   17 APR-19 APR  068/068/068
90 DAY MEAN        16 APR  071
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 15 APR  015/018
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 16 APR  008/012
PREDICTED AFR/AP 17 APR-19 APR  010/020-010/015-010/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 17 APR-19 APR
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/20/20
MINOR STORM           15/15/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/25/25
MINOR STORM           15/15/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05