:Product: 19960417RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1996 Apr 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 108 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 17 APR 1996
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 16/2100Z
TO 17/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. REGION 7956 (N05W36)
STABILIZED AS A SMALL BIPOLE, BUT ITS ASSOCIATED PLAGE FIELD
GREW AND BRIGHTENED. IT PRODUCED ONE SMALL X-RAY FLARE DURING
THE INTERVAL. THE REMAINDER OF THE DISK AND LIMBS WERE QUIET.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
VERY LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 16/2100Z TO 17/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN AT UNSETTLED TO MINOR
STORM LEVELS AT ALL LATITUDES THE PAST 24 HOURS. SOLAR
WIND DATA SUGGEST THIS DISTURBANCE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A HIGH
SPEED STREAM FROM A LOBE OF THE SOUTHERN POLAR CROWN CORONAL
HOLE. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX VARIED FROM
MODERATE TO HIGH.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED THE NEXT THREE DAYS. SHORT EPISODES
OF LOCAL NIGHTTIME SUBSTORMS MAY OCCUR IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 18 APR-20 APR
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           17 APR  069
PREDICTED   18 APR-20 APR  070/070/070
90 DAY MEAN        17 APR  071
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 16 APR  011/010
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 17 APR  020/020
PREDICTED AFR/AP 18 APR-20 APR  015/015-010/010-010/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 18 APR-20 APR
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                35/20/20
MINOR STORM           15/15/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                35/25/25
MINOR STORM           15/15/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05