:Product: 19960418RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1996 Apr 18 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 109 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 18 APR 1996
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 17/2100Z
TO 18/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. NEWLY ASSIGNED REGION
7957 (S10W49) EMERGED NEAR THE OTHER VISIBLE SPOT GROUP, REGION
7956 (N05W50). NEITHER REGION HAS GENERATED ANY ACTIVITY, AS
BOTH ARE SMALL BIPOLES.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
VERY LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 17/2100Z TO 18/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD VARIED FROM QUIET TO MAJOR STORM LEVELS
AS THE CURRENT DISTURBANCE REFUSED TO ABATE. ALTHOUGH SOLAR
WIND DATA ARE UNAVAILABLE TODAY, IT IS PRESUMED THAT THIS IS
A CONTINUATION OF THE HIGH SPEED STREAM SEEN YESTERDAY.THE
GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX WAS MODERATE TO HIGH.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE
LAST TWO DAYS SHOULD SEE MERELY UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 19 APR-21 APR
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           18 APR  070
PREDICTED   19 APR-21 APR  070/070/070
90 DAY MEAN        18 APR  071
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 17 APR  030/027
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 18 APR  020/025
PREDICTED AFR/AP 19 APR-21 APR  015/020-010/015-010/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 19 APR-21 APR
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/20/20
MINOR STORM           25/15/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/20/20
MINOR STORM           30/25/25
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05