:Product: 19960419RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1996 Apr 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 110 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 19 APR 1996
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 18/2100Z
TO 19/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. REGION 7956 (N04W62)
CONTINUED ITS SLOW DECAY, LEAVING IT A SPOTLESS PLAGE. REGION
7957 (S09W63) PERSISTS AS A SMALL BIPOLE  AND SHOWS POINT
BRIGHTENINGS IN THE PLAGE NEAR THE LEADER SPOTS. NEITHER REGION
PRODUCED ANY ERUPTIVE ACTIVITY IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. THERE IS
EVIDENCE OF A SMALL ACTIVE REGION COMING INTO VIEW NEAR THE
SOLAR EQUATOR AT EAST LIMB.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
VERY LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 18/2100Z TO 19/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD CONTINUED AT UNSETTLED TO MINOR STORM
LEVELS. THIS PROLONGED DISTURBANCE IS THOUGHT TO BE DUE TO A
HIGH SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAM EMANATING FROM A LOBE OF THE
SOUTHERN POLAR CROWN CORONAL HOLE. SOLAR WIND DATA WERE
UNAVAILABLE AGAIN TODAY. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX
VARIED FROM HIGH TO VERY HIGH.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED. THIS CURRENT DISTURBANCE SHOULD
WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 20 APR-22 APR
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           19 APR  070
PREDICTED   20 APR-22 APR  070/070/070
90 DAY MEAN        19 APR  071
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 18 APR  020/025
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 19 APR  020/020
PREDICTED AFR/AP 20 APR-22 APR  015/015-010/010-010/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 20 APR-22 APR
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                40/20/20
MINOR STORM           15/15/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                45/25/25
MINOR STORM           15/15/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05