:Product: 19960420RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1996 Apr 20 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 111 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 20 APR 1996
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 19/2100Z
TO 20/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED VERY LOW. SPOTLESS REGION
7956 (N04W74) PRODUCED A B2/SF AT 20/0705Z. NEW REGION 7958
(S07W54) EMERGED AT A MODERATE PACE AND EXHIBITED BRIGHT PLAGE.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE
AT A VERY LOW LEVEL. CONTINUED EMERGENCE OF REGION 7958
COULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED LOW-LEVEL C-CLASS FLARE.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 19/2100Z TO 20/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE WITH
ISOLATED QUIET TIMES AT MID-LATITUDES. ENERGETIC ELECTRON
FLUXES AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS WERE HIGH TO VERY HIGH. SOLAR
WIND DATA INDICATE AN UNAMBIGUOUS CORONAL HOLE SOURCE FOR
THESE CONDITIONS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD
SHOULD RANGE FROM QUIET TO ACTIVE LEVELS ON 21 APR. QUIET
TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR 22-23 APR WITH
ISOLATED ACTIVE LEVELS POSSIBLE DURING THAT TIME. ELECTRON
FLUXES AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED FOR THE
NEXT THREE DAYS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 21 APR-23 APR
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           20 APR  071
PREDICTED   21 APR-23 APR  071/070/069
90 DAY MEAN        20 APR  071
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 19 APR  023/022
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 20 APR  012/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 21 APR-23 APR  012/012-010/010-010/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 21 APR-23 APR
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                40/20/15
MINOR STORM           15/15/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                45/25/20
MINOR STORM           15/15/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05