:Product: 19960421RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1996 Apr 21 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 112 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 21 APR 1996
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 20/2100Z
TO 21/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. REGION 7958 (S07W69)
DEVELOPED INTO A D-TYPE GROUP AND PRODUCED SEVERAL SUBFLARES.
A RADIO BURST OF 160 FLUX UNITS AT 245 MHZ OCCURRED ON 21/1647Z.
THE REMAINDER OF THE DISK AND LIMBS WERE QUIET.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
VERY LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 20/2100Z TO 21/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN AT QUIET TO ACTIVE LEVELS
FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES AT
GEOSYNCHRONOUS ALTITUDES REACHED VERY HIGH LEVELS NEAR 2000Z.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY UNSETTLED, WITH ISOLATED PERIODS AT BOTH
QUIET AND ACTIVE LEVELS. ELECTRON FLUXES AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS
ALTITUDES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGH FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 22 APR-24 APR
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           21 APR  074
PREDICTED   22 APR-24 APR  070/069/069
90 DAY MEAN        21 APR  071
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 20 APR  012/018
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 21 APR  015/012
PREDICTED AFR/AP 22 APR-24 APR  010/010-010/010-010/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 22 APR-24 APR
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                75/35/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05