:Product: 19960422RSGA.txt :Issued: 1996 Apr 22 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SDF NUMBER 113 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 22 APR 1996 IA. ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 21/2100Z TO 22/2100Z: SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 7958 (S07W82) PRODUCED FREQUENT FLARE ACTIVITY DURING THE DAY. THE LARGEST OF THESE WAS A M3/SF AT 0446Z, WHICH WAS ACCOMPANIED BY A MODERATE TYPE II RADIO SWEEP AND DESCRETE FREQUENCY RADIO BURSTS. THE M3 WAS THE SOLE M-CLASS EVENT OF THE DAY AND THE X-RAY PROFILE OF THE EVENT WAS OF SHORT DURATION. IB. SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST: SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A MARKED DOWNWARD TREND IN ACTIVITY AND BACK- GROUND LEVELS IS EXPECTED AS REGION 7958 ROTATES OFF THE VISIBLE DISK TOMORROW. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 21/2100Z TO 22/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS. AN ISOLATED PERIOD OF ACTIVE CONDITIONS OC- CURRED FROM 0300-0600Z. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUXES AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ALTITUDE HAVE BEEN AT HIGH TO VERY HIGH LEVELS. IIB. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. III. EVENT PROBABILITIES 23 APR-25 APR CLASS M 15/05/01 CLASS X 01/01/01 PROTON 01/01/01 PCAF GREEN IV. PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX OBSERVED 22 APR 072 PREDICTED 23 APR-25 APR 070/069/068 90 DAY MEAN 22 APR 071 V. GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES OBSERVED AFR/AP 21 APR 012/012 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 22 APR 011/010 PREDICTED AFR/AP 23 APR-25 APR 010/010-010/010-010/010 VI. GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 23 APR-25 APR A. MIDDLE LATITUDES ACTIVE 15/15/15 MINOR STORM 10/10/10 MAJOR-SEVERE STORM 05/05/05 B. HIGH LATITUDES ACTIVE 15/15/15 MINOR STORM 10/10/10 MAJOR-SEVERE STORM 05/05/05