:Product: 19960423RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1996 Apr 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 114 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 23 APR 1996
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 22/2100Z
TO 23/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. NUMEROUS B-CLASS X-
RAY EVENTS OCCURRED, PRESUMABLY DUE TO REGION 7958 (S08W90+)
WHICH HAS CROSSED WEST LIMB. THE REMAINDER OF THE SOLAR DISK
WAS VERY QUIET AND STABLE.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
VERY LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 22/2100Z TO 23/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS PREDOMINANTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED
FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WAS AN INTERVAL
OF ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM CONDITIONS WHICH OCCURRED BETWEEN
0000-0600Z AT NUMEROUS LOCATIONS. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV
ELECTRON FLUXES HAVE BEEN AT HIGH LEVELS FOR THE PAST 24
HOURS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 24 APR-26 APR
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           23 APR  071
PREDICTED   24 APR-26 APR  069/068/068
90 DAY MEAN        23 APR  071
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 22 APR  010/009
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 23 APR  011/011
PREDICTED AFR/AP 24 APR-26 APR  010/012-010/012-005/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 24 APR-26 APR
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/05
MINOR STORM           10/10/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/05
MINOR STORM           10/10/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/01