:Product: 19960505RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1996 May 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 126 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 05 MAY 1996
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 04/2100Z
TO 05/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. GOES SPACECRAFT DETECTED
A C3 X-RAY BURST AT 05/1838Z WITH AN ASSOCIATED TYPE II SWEEP.
THERE WAS NO OPTICAL ACTIVITY CORRELATED WITH THE BURST. AN
EARLIER B9 X-RAY BURST WAS DETECTED AT 05/1029Z AND CAN BE
CORRELATED WITH ACTIVE SURGING IN A PLAGE REGION NEAR S10E77.
THIS REGION HAS NOT EXHIBITED SPOTS YET, SO REMAINS UNNUMBERED.
THE REGION APPEARS TO BE THE RETURN OF SWO REGION 7957.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
VERY LOW TO LOW OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. THE UNNUMBERED
REGION NEAR S10E77 IS UNDER SCRUTINY. IT HAS A CHANCE OF
DEVELOPING INTO A SPOTTED REGION AND PRODUCING FURTHER C-CLASS
X-RAY ACTIVITY. IT WILL BE NUMBERED WHEN ACTIVITY CAN BE
POSITIVELY CORRELATED WITH IT.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 04/2100Z TO 05/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS
FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE
FILED IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MOSTLY UNSETTLED THEREAFTER IN
RESPONSE TO THE ANTICIPATED CORONAL MASS EJECTION SHOCK WAVE
INDICATED BY THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED ACTIVITY.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 06 MAY-08 MAY
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           05 MAY  070
PREDICTED   06 MAY-08 MAY  072/072/072
90 DAY MEAN        05 MAY  070
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 04 MAY  010/010
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 05 MAY  010/009
PREDICTED AFR/AP 06 MAY-08 MAY  010/008-010/008-015/015
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 06 MAY-08 MAY
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/25
MINOR STORM           05/05/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/25
MINOR STORM           05/05/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/05