:Product: 19960506RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1996 May 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 127 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 06 MAY 1996
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 05/2100Z
TO 06/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. TWO ERUPTIVE EVENTS WERE
THE HIGHLIGHTS OF THE DAY, NEITHER WAS SEEN IN H-ALPHA. A C2
X-RAY FLARE OCCURRED AT 1521Z, AND A B4 EVENT WITH AN
ASSOCIATED RADIO BURST OF 3300 SFU AT 245 MHZ OCCURRED AT 0937Z.
THIS ACTIVITY IS PRESUMED TO BE FROM A NEWLY NUMBERED REGION
NOW NEAR EAST LIMB, 7962 (S04E77). THIS REGION WAS PRECEDED
BY A BIPOLAR PLAGE REGION. ELSEWHERE, ANOTHER NEW REGION, 7961
(N13W02) WAS ASSIGNED, A SIMPLE BIPOLE.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
LOW. ISOLATED C-CLASS FLARES ARE LIKELY FROM REGION 7962.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 05/2100Z TO 06/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 07 MAY-09 MAY
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           06 MAY  074
PREDICTED   07 MAY-09 MAY  074/076/076
90 DAY MEAN        06 MAY  070
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 05 MAY  009/007
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 06 MAY  005/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 07 MAY-09 MAY  010/008-010/010-015/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 07 MAY-09 MAY
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/20/25
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/25/25
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05