:Product: 19960507RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1996 May 07 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 128 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 07 MAY 1996
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 06/2100Z
TO 07/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW WITH A SINGLE C-CLASS
ERUPTIVE EVENT.  THIS C2 X-RAY FLARE OCCURRED AT 0419Z.  IT IS
LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH REGION 7962 (S05E67), WHICH CONTINUES TO
MOVE AROUND THE EAST LIMB.  ITS CURRENT AREA AND CLASSIFICATION
ARE 110 MILLIONTHS AND CLASS C.  A SMALLER FLARE FROM REGION
7962 (B2/0F) OCCURRED AT 1700Z.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
LOW WITH OCCASIONAL C-CLASS FLARES MOST LIKELY PRODUCED BY
REGION 7962.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 06/2100Z TO 07/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS
DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 08 MAY-10 MAY
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           07 MAY  074
PREDICTED   08 MAY-10 MAY  074/076/076
90 DAY MEAN        07 MAY  070
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 06 MAY  006/006
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 07 MAY  006/006
PREDICTED AFR/AP 08 MAY-10 MAY  010/010-010/010-010/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 08 MAY-10 MAY
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/20/20
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/25/25
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05