:Product: 19960508RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1996 May 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 129 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 08 MAY 1996
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 07/2100Z
TO 08/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW WITH A SINGLE C-CLASS
ERUPTIVE EVENT.  A FLARE (C1 IN X-RAY AND SF IN OPTICAL) WAS
OBSERVED FROM REGION 7962 (S05E54) AT 1552Z.  TWO ADDITIONAL SF
FLARES WERE PRODUCED BY REGION 7962 AT 1506 AND 1518Z.  REGION
7962 IS CURRENTLY CLASSIFIED AS A D-CLASS GROUP WITH 9 SPOTS
AND AN AREA OF 120 MILLIONTHS.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
LOW WITH ISOLATED C-CLASS FLARES PRODUCED MOST LIKELY BY
REGION 7962.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 07/2100Z TO 08/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED
LEVELS FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 09 MAY-11 MAY
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           08 MAY  076
PREDICTED   09 MAY-11 MAY  076/078/078
90 DAY MEAN        08 MAY  070
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 07 MAY  006/006
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 08 MAY  010/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 09 MAY-11 MAY  010/010-010/010-015/020
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 09 MAY-11 MAY
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/20/30
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/25/35
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05