:Product: 19960509RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1996 May 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 130 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 09 MAY 1996
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 08/2100Z
TO 09/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW WITH ONE C-CLASS ERUPTIVE
EVENT FROM REGION 7962 (S07E40).  A C2/1F FLARE OCCURRED AT
08/2146Z FROM THIS REGION.  REGION 7962 IS CURRENTLY CLASSIFIED
AS A C-TYPE BETA GROUP WITH 7 SPOTS AND AN AREA OF 130
MILLIONTHS.  THE OTHER OPTICAL FLARE WAS A B8/SF FLARE WHICH
ALSO ORIGINATED FROM 7962 AT 08/2236Z.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
LOW WITH ISOLATED C-CLASS FLARES, MOST LIKELY FROM REGION 7962
AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE DISK.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 08/2100Z TO 09/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS
FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS AT THE MIDDLE
LATITUDES AND UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE AT HIGH LATITUDES FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 10 MAY-12 MAY
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           09 MAY  076
PREDICTED   10 MAY-12 MAY  078/078/080
90 DAY MEAN        09 MAY  070
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 08 MAY  008/008
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 09 MAY  008/006
PREDICTED AFR/AP 10 MAY-12 MAY  010/010-015/020-010/015
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 10 MAY-12 MAY
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/25/20
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/30/25
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/10/05