:Product: 19960510RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1996 May 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 131 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 10 MAY 1996
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 09/2100Z
TO 10/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. REGION 7962 (S06E28)
IS THE LARGEST SUNSPOT GROUP ON DISK, BUT COULD PRODUCE ONLY
INFREQUENT B-CLASS LEVEL ACTIVITY. TWO MEDIUM SIZED SPOTS WITH
PENUMBRA CONSTITUTE MOST OF THE 120 MILLIONTHS AREA OF THE
GROUP. BOTH THESE SPOTS ARE MOSTLY POSITIVE POLARITY, BUT THE
'TRAILER' HAS A WEAK DELTA CONFIGURATION DUE TO A SMALL SECTION
OF NEGATIVE POLARITY PENUMBRA IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE SPOT.
MOST OF THE GROWTH AND ACTIVITY IN THIS GROUP, HOWEVER, IS
OCCURRING TO THE EAST OF THE BIG SPOTS, IN A SECTION OF WEAKER
BUT MORE SHEARED MAGNETIC FIELDS. A HIGH-LATITUDE, REVERSE
POLARITY SPOT GROUP (NUMBERED 7963) EMERGED TODAY NEAR N25E42
AS A SIMPLE B-TYPE REGION. THE LOCATION AND MAGNETIC CHARACTER
IF THE GROUP STRONGLY SUGGEST THAT IT IS A NEW CYCLE SUNSPOT
REGION.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
VERY LOW TO LOW. THERE IS A FAIR CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED C-CLASS
FLARE FROM REGION 7962.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 09/2100Z TO 10/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN AT MOSTLY QUIET LEVELS
FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE PREDOMINANTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT
THREE DAYS. THERE MAY BE OCCASIONAL, BRIEF ACTIVE PERIODS AT
HIGH LATITUDES DURING LOCAL NIGHTTIME.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 11 MAY-13 MAY
CLASS M    05/05/05
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           10 MAY  077
PREDICTED   11 MAY-13 MAY  078/079/080
90 DAY MEAN        10 MAY  070
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 09 MAY  007/006
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 10 MAY  008/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 11 MAY-13 MAY  010/015-010/015-010/015
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 11 MAY-13 MAY
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05