:Product: 19960511RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1996 May 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 132 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 11 MAY 1996
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 10/2100Z
TO 11/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. REGION 7962 (S07E14)
SHOWED MODEST GROWTH AND PRODUCED A COUPLE B-CLASS EVENTS. THE
MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY IN THIS REGION IS OCCURING IN A SHEARED
SECTION OF MAGNETIC FIELD SOUTH OF THE LARGE CENTRAL SPOT.
YESTERDAY'S DELTA CONFIGURATION IS GONE TODAY AS THE NEGATIVE
POLARITY SECTION HAS SPLIT OFF FROM THE MAIN SPOT. A SMALL
BIPOLE REGION EMERGED JUST EAST OF 7962 AND WAS ASSIGNED
REGION NUMBER 7964 (S07E26).
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
LOW. REGION 7962 SHOWS GOOD POTENTIAL FOR PRODUCING AN ISOLATED
C-CLASS EVENT.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 10/2100Z TO 11/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN AT MOSTLY QUIET LEVELS
FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. AN
INCREASE TO UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE LEVELS IS EXPECTED ON THE THIRD
DAY DUE TO RECURRENCE.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 12 MAY-14 MAY
CLASS M    05/05/05
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           11 MAY  076
PREDICTED   12 MAY-14 MAY  079/080/080
90 DAY MEAN        11 MAY  070
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 10 MAY  007/006
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 11 MAY  006/006
PREDICTED AFR/AP 12 MAY-14 MAY  010/012-010/015-015/020
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 12 MAY-14 MAY
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/40
MINOR STORM           05/05/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/35
MINOR STORM           05/05/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05