:Product: 19960512RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1996 May 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 133 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 12 MAY 1996
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 11/2100Z
TO 12/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 7962 (S07W01) PRO-
DUCED A C1/SF AT 2123Z. THE GROUP PRODUCED ADDITIONAL B-CLASS
SUBFLARES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THERE APPEARS TO BE A GENERAL
DECLINING TREND IN THE REGION AND THE MAGNETIC STRUCTURE IS
MORE RELAXED THAN YESTERDAY.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
VERY LOW. OCCASIONAL B-CLASS FLARES ARE EXPECTED FROM REGION
7962.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 11/2100Z TO 12/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN AT QUIET LEVELS FOR
THE PAST 24 HOURS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AN
INCREASE TO UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE IS EXPECTED ON THE SECOND
AND THIRD DAYS DUE TO RECURRENCE.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 13 MAY-15 MAY
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           12 MAY  073
PREDICTED   13 MAY-15 MAY  072/072/072
90 DAY MEAN        12 MAY  071
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 11 MAY  005/005
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 12 MAY  005/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 13 MAY-15 MAY  005/012-015/015-015/020
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 13 MAY-15 MAY
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/40/40
MINOR STORM           05/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/05/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/35/35
MINOR STORM           05/15/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/05/05