:Product: 19960513RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1996 May 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 134 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 13 MAY 1996
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 12/2100Z
TO 13/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. ONLY TWO B-CLASS
FLARES WERE OBSERVED DURING THE PERIOD. REGION 7962 (S06W15)
IS THE ONLY SPOTTED REGION ON THE DISK AND IS GENERALLY
DECLINING IN SIZE AND ACTIVITY PRODUCTION.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
VERY LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 12/2100Z TO 13/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN AT QUIET TO ACTIVE LEVELS
FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS. CONDITIONS WERE QUIET EARLY IN THE
PERIOD BUT AN INCREASE TO MOSTLY UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WITH
OCCASIONAL ACTIVE PERIODS BEGAN AT 13/0000Z AND CONTINUED
THROUGH THE END OF THE DAY.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY UNSETTLED WITH OCCASIONAL ACTIVE PERIODS
OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS DUE TO THE EFFECTS FROM RECURRENCE.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 14 MAY-16 MAY
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           13 MAY  072
PREDICTED   14 MAY-16 MAY  072/072/072
90 DAY MEAN        13 MAY  071
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 12 MAY  005/006
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 13 MAY  012/012
PREDICTED AFR/AP 14 MAY-16 MAY  015/012-015/015-010/015
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 14 MAY-16 MAY
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                45/40/40
MINOR STORM           05/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/05/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                35/35/35
MINOR STORM           15/15/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05