:Product: 19960514RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1996 May 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 135 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 14 MAY 1996
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 13/2100Z
TO 14/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. TWO SMALL B-FLARES
OCCURRED. REGION 7962 (S06W29) CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DECAY.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
VERY LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 13/2100Z TO 14/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM QUIET TO ACTIVE LEVELS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 15 MAY-17 MAY
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           14 MAY  071
PREDICTED   15 MAY-17 MAY  070/070/068
90 DAY MEAN        14 MAY  071
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 13 MAY  014/014
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 14 MAY  010/012
PREDICTED AFR/AP 15 MAY-17 MAY  015/015-015/015-010/012
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 15 MAY-17 MAY
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                40/40/10
MINOR STORM           10/10/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                35/35/10
MINOR STORM           15/15/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05