:Product: 19960515RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1996 May 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 136 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 15 MAY 1996
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 14/2100Z
TO 15/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. NO FLARES OCCURRED.
REGION 7962 (S06W43) CONTINUES TO DECAY SLOWLY.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
VERY LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 14/2100Z TO 15/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 16 MAY-18 MAY
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           15 MAY  070
PREDICTED   16 MAY-18 MAY  070/070/068
90 DAY MEAN        15 MAY  071
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 14 MAY  014/013
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 15 MAY  008/012
PREDICTED AFR/AP 16 MAY-18 MAY  010/015-010/012-010/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 16 MAY-18 MAY
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05