:Product: 19960518RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1996 May 18 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 139 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 18 MAY 1996
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 17/2100Z
TO 18/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW.  NO FLARES OCCURRED.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
VERY LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 17/2100Z TO 18/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN AT QUIET LEVELS FOR
THE PAST 24 HOURS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS,
WITH A CHANCE OF ISOLATED PERIODS OF ACTIVE CONDITIONS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 19 MAY-21 MAY
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           18 MAY  070
PREDICTED   19 MAY-21 MAY  070/070/069
90 DAY MEAN        18 MAY  071
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 17 MAY  011/012
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 18 MAY  006/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 19 MAY-21 MAY  008/010-008/010-005/005
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 19 MAY-21 MAY
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05