:Product: 19960520RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1996 May 20 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 141 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 20 MAY 1996
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 19/2100Z
TO 20/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW.  NO FLARES OCCURRED
AND THE VISIBLE DISK IS CURRENTLY SPOTLESS.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN VERY LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 19/2100Z TO 20/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS
FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS, EXCEPT FOR A SINGLE INTERVAL OF
ACTIVE CONDITIONS AT HIGH LATITUDES DURING THE PERIOD
20/0000-0300Z.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED, WITH A CHANCE FOR AN
ISOLATED PERIOD OF ACTIVE CONDITIONS, FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS,
AND THEN REVERTING TO MOSTLY QUIET CONDITIONS FOR THE
FOLLOWING TWO DAYS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 21 MAY-23 MAY
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           20 MAY  067
PREDICTED   21 MAY-23 MAY  069/069/068
90 DAY MEAN        20 MAY  071
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 19 MAY  007/005
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 20 MAY  008/009
PREDICTED AFR/AP 21 MAY-23 MAY  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 21 MAY-23 MAY
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05