:Product: 19960521RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1996 May 21 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 142 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 21 MAY 1996
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 20/2100Z
TO 21/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW.  THE VISIBLE DISK IS
CURRENTLY SPOTLESS AND ESSENTIALLY FEATURELESS, EXCEPT FOR A
22 DEGREE NNE-SSW ORIENTED FILAMENT AT LOCATION N15E08.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN VERY LOW THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 20/2100Z TO 21/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN AT QUIET TO ACTIVE LEVELS FOR
THE PAST 24 HOURS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED, WITH A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
PERIODS OF ACTIVE CONDITIONS, FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, AND THEN
MOSTLY QUIET FOR THE FOLLOWING TWO DAYS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 22 MAY-24 MAY
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           21 MAY  066
PREDICTED   22 MAY-24 MAY  068/068/068
90 DAY MEAN        21 MAY  070
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 20 MAY  012/011
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 21 MAY  010/011
PREDICTED AFR/AP 22 MAY-24 MAY  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 22 MAY-24 MAY
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05