:Product: 19960607RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1996 Jun 07 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 159 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 07 JUN 1996
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 06/2100Z
TO 07/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW.  REGION 7968
(N02W15), THE ONLY ACTIVE REGION CURRENTLY ON THE VISIBLE DISK,
HAS GROWN SIGNIFICANTLY IN BOTH SIZE AND NUMBER OF SPOTS SINCE
YESTERDAY. THIS REGION HAS PRODUCED THREE B-CLASS FLARES IN THE
LAST 24 HOURS, ONE AT 0956Z OPTICALLY CORRELATED AS A SUB-
FLARE.  THE LARGE TWELVE DEGREE FILAMENT LOCATED AT N06E24
INCREASED IN WIDTH, LENGTH, AND DENSITY SINCE YESTERDAY, BUT
REMAINS RELATIVELY MOTIONLESS.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
VERY LOW, WITH A 60% CHANCE FOR A C-CLASS EVENT AND 10% CHANCE
OF AN M-CLASS EVENT GENERATED FROM REGION 7968 DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 06/2100Z TO 07/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN AT QUIET LEVELS AT ALL LATITUDES
FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS.  YESTERDAY'S ISOLATED ACTIVE TO MINOR
STORM CONDITIONS IS BELIEVED TO BE THE RESULT OF A DISAPPEARING
FILAMENT EARLIER IN THE WEEK.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH
AND INCREASED CHANCE OF ISOLATED ACTIVE PERIODS FOR DAYS TWO
AND THREE.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 08 JUN-10 JUN
CLASS M    10/10/10
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           07 JUN  073
PREDICTED   08 JUN-10 JUN  072/072/070
90 DAY MEAN        07 JUN  070
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 06 JUN  016/018
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 07 JUN  008/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 08 JUN-10 JUN  008/008-010/008-010/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 08 JUN-10 JUN
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/20/20
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/20/20
MINOR STORM           10/15/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05