:Product: 19960608RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1996 Jun 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 160 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 08 JUN 1996
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 07/2100Z
TO 08/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW.  REGION 7968 (N03W29)
CONTINUES TO BE THE ONLY ACTIVE REGION ON THE VISIBLE DISK.
THE REGION PRODUCED NO FLARES DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS WHILE
DEVELOPING INTO A 'DAO' GROUP WITH APPROXIMATELY 19 SPOTS.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
VERY LOW.  REGION 7968 APPEARS TO HAVE STABILIZED AT THE
PRESENT TIME, BUT IS STILL THOUGHT TO HAVE A 50% CHANCE OF
PRODUCING A C-CLASS EVENT AND 10% CHANCE OF PRODUCING AN
M-CLASS EVENT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 07/2100Z TO 08/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN AT MOSTLY QUIET LEVELS
FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS, WITH A SINGLE PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
ACTIVITY OCCURING AT ALL LATITUDES DURING THE INTERVAL
08/0900-1200.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS,
WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF ISOLATED PERIODS OF ACTIVE CONDITIONS
INCREASING ON DAYS TWO AND THREE.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 09 JUN-11 JUN
CLASS M    10/10/10
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           08 JUN  070
PREDICTED   09 JUN-11 JUN  072/071/070
90 DAY MEAN        08 JUN  070
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 07 JUN  004/004
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 08 JUN  005/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 09 JUN-11 JUN  010/010-010/010-010/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 09 JUN-11 JUN
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/20/20
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/20/20
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05