:Product: 19960609RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1996 Jun 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 161 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 09 JUN 1996
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 08/2100Z
TO 09/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW.  NEW REGION 7971
(S07W42), A TWO SPOT 'BXO' GROUP, WAS NUMBERED TODAY.
REGION 7968 (N02W42) PRODUCED TWO B-CLASS EVENTS, THE LARGEST
A B7 AT 09/0910Z, WHICH WERE BOTH OPTICALLY CORRELATED AS
SUBFLARES.  REGION 7968 HAS LOST A NUMBER OF SPOTS SINCE
YESTERDAY, BUT ITS OVERALL SIZE HAS REMAINED FAIRLY CONSTANT,
AND IS CURRENTLY A 'CAO' GROUP WITH 12 SPOTS.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
VERY LOW, ALTHOUGH REGION 7968 REMAINS ACTIVE WITH A 40% CHANCE
OF GENERATING A C-CLASS EVENT AND 10% CHANCE OF GENERATING AN
M-CLASS EVENT.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 08/2100Z TO 09/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN AT QUIET LEVELS AT ALL
LATITUDES FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS,
WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE OF ISOLATED PERIODS OF ACTIVE
CONDITIONS ON DAYS TWO AND THREE.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 10 JUN-12 JUN
CLASS M    10/10/05
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           09 JUN  070
PREDICTED   10 JUN-12 JUN  071/070/070
90 DAY MEAN        09 JUN  070
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 08 JUN  006/005
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 09 JUN  006/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 10 JUN-12 JUN  010/010-010/010-010/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 10 JUN-12 JUN
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/20/20
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/20/20
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05