:Product: 19960610RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1996 Jun 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 162 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 10 JUN 1996
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 09/2100Z
TO 10/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW.  NO FLARES OCCURRED.
REGION 7968 (N02W56), THE ONLY ACTIVE REGION ON THE VISIBLE
DISK, HAS BEGUN TO DECAY.  THE REGION IS CURRENTLY A SEVEN
SPOT 'CAO' GROUP COVERING AN AREA OF APPROXIMATELY 60
MILLIONTHS.  REGION 7971 (S07W28), WHICH WAS NUMBERED
YESTERDAY, HAS LOST ITS THREE SPOTS AND DECAYED INTO WIDELY
SCATTERED PLAGE.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
VERY LOW, WITH THE PROBABILITY OF EITHER A C-CLASS OR M-CLASS
EVENT FROM REGION 7968 DOWN TO 30% AND 5% RESPECTIVELY.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 09/2100Z TO 10/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED
LEVELS FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS,
WITH AN INCRESING CHANCE OF ISOLATED PERIODS OF ACTIVE
CONDITIONS ON DAYS TWO AND THREE.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 11 JUN-13 JUN
CLASS M    05/05/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           10 JUN  069
PREDICTED   11 JUN-13 JUN  070/070/070
90 DAY MEAN        10 JUN  070
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 09 JUN  004/004
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 10 JUN  008/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 11 JUN-13 JUN  010/010-010/010-010/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 11 JUN-13 JUN
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/20/20
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/20/20
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05