:Product: 19960619RSGA.txt :Issued: 1996 Jun 19 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SDF NUMBER 171 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 19 JUN 1996 IA. ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 18/2100Z TO 19/2100Z: SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED VERY LOW. NEW REGION 7973 (N09E71) ROTATED INTO VIEW AS A SMALL H CLASS SUNSPOT GROUP. THIS REGION PRODUCED A LONG DURATION A9 EVENT FROM 19/1104- 1414Z. YOHKOH OBSERVED THE EVENT. ANOTHER SMALLER LONG DURATION EVENT BEGAN NEAR 19/1700Z AND WAS ENDING NEAR 19/2100Z. THE LOCATION FOR THIS EVENT IS UNKNOWN, BUT REGION 7973 IS THE LIKELY SOURCE. IB. SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST: SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE AT A VERY LOW LEVEL FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. THERE IS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF A C-CLASS FLARE FROM REGION 7973. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 18/2100Z TO 19/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS UNSETTLED AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED BETWEEN 19/0000-0600Z. THE SOURCE OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS UNKNOWN. QUIET CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. REAL-TIME SOLAR WIND DATA WERE RECEIVED DURING THE QUIET PERIODS. STREAM PARAMETERS WERE UNREMARKABLE. IIB. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS FORECAST TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. ISOLATED SUBSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY ON 20 JUN. III. EVENT PROBABILITIES 20 JUN-22 JUN CLASS M 01/01/01 CLASS X 01/01/01 PROTON 01/01/01 PCAF GREEN IV. PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX OBSERVED 19 JUN 068 PREDICTED 20 JUN-22 JUN 069/069/069 90 DAY MEAN 19 JUN 070 V. GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES OBSERVED AFR/AP 18 JUN 006/005 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 19 JUN 015/012 PREDICTED AFR/AP 20 JUN-22 JUN 005/005-005/005-005/005 VI. GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 20 JUN-22 JUN A. MIDDLE LATITUDES ACTIVE 10/05/05 MINOR STORM 05/01/01 MAJOR-SEVERE STORM 01/01/01 B. HIGH LATITUDES ACTIVE 15/10/10 MINOR STORM 05/05/05 MAJOR-SEVERE STORM 05/01/01