:Product: 19960628RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1996 Jun 28 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 180 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 28 JUN 1996
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 27/2100Z
TO 28/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW.  NO FLARES OCCURRRED.
TWO ACTIVE REGIONS, 7976 (N13W02) AND 7973 (N08W48), REMAIN ON
THE VISIBLE DISK.  THE SINGLE 'HSX' SPOT IN REGION 7973 HAS
REMAINED ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED SINCE IT FIRST ROTATED ONTO THE
DISK 9 DAYS AGO.  A SMALL DSF NOTED IN THIS REGION EARLY IN
THE REPORTING PERIOD HAS BEGUN TO REFORM IN ITS ORIGINAL
LOCATION.  REGION 7976 CONTINUES AS A FAIRLY STABLE FOUR
SPOT 'HRX' GROUP.  AN EXTENSIVE BRIGHT FACULAE FIELD CENTERED
AT N24E63 HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO AN ACTIVE REGION,
ALTHOUGH NO SPOTS ARE CURRENTLY VISIBLE.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
VERY LOW, WITH A 10% CHANCE OF A C-CLASS EVENT FROM REGION
7976.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 27/2100Z TO 28/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED
LEVELS FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET, WITH ISOLATED PERIODS OF UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS, FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 29 JUN-01 JUL
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           28 JUN  071
PREDICTED   29 JUN-01 JUL  070/070/070
90 DAY MEAN        28 JUN  069
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 27 JUN  007/006
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 28 JUN  006/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 29 JUN-01 JUL  005/005-005/005-005/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 29 JUN-01 JUL
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                05/05/05
MINOR STORM           01/01/01
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                05/05/05
MINOR STORM           01/01/01
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01