:Product: 19960629RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1996 Jun 29 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 181 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 29 JUN 1996
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 28/2100Z
TO 29/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW.  NO FLARES OCCURRED.
THE TWO ACTIVE REGIONS ON THE VISIBLE DISK, 7973 (N09W62) AND
7976 (N13W09), REMAIN STABLE.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
VERY LOW, WITH A COMBINED 25% CHANCE FOR A C-CLASS EVENT FROM
EITHER OF THE TWO ACTIVE REGIONS CURRENTLY ON THE VISIBLE DISK.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 28/2100Z TO 29/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED
LEVELS FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS, WITH
AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR ISOLATED PERIODS OF ACTIVE CONDITIONS
ON DAYS TWO AND THREE.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 30 JUN-02 JUL
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           29 JUN  071
PREDICTED   30 JUN-02 JUL  070/070/072
90 DAY MEAN        29 JUN  069
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 28 JUN  007/006
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 29 JUN  006/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 30 JUN-02 JUL  005/005-008/010-008/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 30 JUN-02 JUL
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01